AISportsPlaysExpected Value (EV) Calculator
Enter your own estimate of how likely a pick is to win, the odds offered, and a stake, to see whether it's +EV or -EV — and by how much. No login required.
What expected value means
Expected value is the average result you'd get if you took the exact same pick, at the exact same odds, a huge number of times. A +EV pick is one where, on average, you come out ahead over the long run even though any single try can still lose. A -EV pick loses money on average over the long run even though any single try can still win. EV doesn't predict what happens once — it describes the average over many repeats.
How to use it
Enter your own honest estimate of how likely the pick is to win (as a percentage), the odds being offered, and how much you'd stake. The calculator compares your estimate against what the odds themselves imply and shows the resulting EV in dollars and as a percentage of your stake.
The one thing this tool can't do for you
This calculator does the EV math correctly, but it has no opinion of its own on how likely anything is to happen — that estimate has to come from you. The result is only as good as that input: if your probability estimate is wrong, the EV number will be too. For a model-generated probability estimate instead of your own guess, see the picks page, where every pick's confidence is computed from real data.
Want picks already run through the numbers for you?
See today's model projections →